{ "verification_note": "Sources below were directly retrieved and inspected on 30 October 2026 by the case researchers. URLs identify the retrieved originals or stated institutional mirrors. Publication dates, fieldwork dates, historical events and upload dates are distinguished below.", "cases": [ { "country": "Russia", "case_window": "January–March 2024 presidential-election period", "sources": [ { "id": "RU-A", "title": "The scale of public support for Boris Nadezhdin", "author": "Levada Center", "date": "2 May 2024; survey fieldwork 21–28 February 2024, with a January hypothetical-ballot comparison", "url": "https://www.levada.ru/en/2024/05/02/the-scale-of-public-support-for-boris-nadezhdin/", "locator": "Opening and first three substantive paragraphs; Methodology", "limitation": "Later publication reports attitudes within the historical window. Name recognition and hypothetical preferences cannot estimate support under unrestricted entry and campaigning.", "cards": [ "RU1" ] }, { "id": "RU-B", "title": "World Report 2024: Russia, Events of 2023", "author": "Human Rights Watch", "date": "January 2024, reporting 2023", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2024/country-chapters/russia", "locator": "Counterterrorism and Counter-Extremism, first four paragraphs", "limitation": "Rights-monitoring report documents organizational restrictions and characterizes prosecutions as politically motivated. It does not estimate electoral support or the votes those restrictions changed.", "cards": [ "RU2" ] }, { "id": "RU-C", "title": "Russian Federation flouts international commitments once again with decision not to invite OSCE observers to presidential election", "author": "OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights and OSCE Parliamentary Assembly", "date": "29 January 2024", "url": "https://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/russia/562065", "locator": "Opening paragraphs and paragraph beginning “ODIHR engaged”", "limitation": "Primary statement establishes that these bodies received no invitation and could not deploy. Non-observation does not measure fabricated votes or sincere support.", "cards": [ "RU3" ] }, { "id": "RU-D", "title": "Mass assessments of the past presidential elections", "author": "Levada Center", "date": "24 May 2024; fieldwork 21–27 March 2024", "url": "https://www.levada.ru/en/2024/05/24/mass-assessments-of-the-past-presidential-elections/", "locator": "Campaign ratings; Electoral preferences; Methodology", "limitation": "In-person survey of 1,628 adults reports recalled votes and attitudes. Questions have different denominators. These are not official returns or estimates of preferences under open competition.", "cards": [ "RU0", "RU4" ] }, { "id": "RU-E", "title": "World Report 2025: Russia, Events of 2024", "author": "Human Rights Watch", "date": "January 2025, retrospectively reporting 2024", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2025/country-chapters/russia", "locator": "Freedom of Assembly, paragraph beginning “In March”", "limitation": "HRW cites OVD-Info’s account of detentions. Before using a numerical total from the original reports, check whether it counts people or detention incidents; the units are not interchangeable. Neither source measures national electoral competitiveness.", "cards": [ "RU5" ] }, { "id": "RU-F", "title": "The election of the President of the Russian Federation. Data from the survey February 21–28", "author": "Levada Center", "date": "19 April 2024; fieldwork 21–28 February 2024", "url": "https://www.levada.ru/en/2024/04/19/the-election-of-the-president-of-the-russian-federation-data-from-the-survey-february-21-28/", "locator": "Opening methodological qualification; last substantive paragraph; Methodology", "limitation": "A pre-election measure of sympathies, explicitly not a forecast. Restrictions already shaped choices; survey answers do not establish unrestricted competition.", "cards": [ "RU6" ] } ] }, { "country": "Malaysia", "case_window": "5 May 2013 and 9 May 2018 elections; Mahathir took office 10 May 2018; separate late-2018 epilogue", "sources": [ { "id": "MY-A", "title": "PARLINE: Malaysia, Dewan Rakyat, Elections in 2013", "author": "Inter-Parliamentary Union", "date": "Election 5 May 2013; cites House of Representatives information dated 6 June 2013", "url": "http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/arc/2197_13.htm", "locator": "Background; Distribution of seats; Sources", "limitation": "Administrative seat totals and a compiled contemporary narrative. Opposition popular vote is approximately 51%, not a precise figure in this source. A vote-seat gap alone does not prove fraud.", "cards": [ "MY0", "MY1" ] }, { "id": "MY-B", "title": "PARLINE: Malaysia, Dewan Rakyat, Last elections, 9 May 2018", "author": "Inter-Parliamentary Union", "date": "Election 9 May 2018; cites Parliament information dated 21 May and 17 July 2018", "url": "http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2197_E.htm", "locator": "Background; notes 1–2; Distribution of seats; Sources", "limitation": "PH total is 113 seats, excluding Warisan’s eight. Common ballot labels do not equal constituent-party membership. Narrative identifies plausible changes without isolating their causal effects.", "cards": [ "MY0", "MY3", "MY4", "MY5" ] }, { "id": "MY-C", "title": "World Report 2018: Malaysia, Events of 2017", "author": "Human Rights Watch", "date": "2018, reporting 2017", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2018/country-chapters/malaysia", "locator": "Freedom of Expression; Freedom of Assembly and Association", "limitation": "Rights-monitoring report documents restrictions, rather than estimating how many votes they changed or measuring the incumbent’s sincere support.", "cards": [ "MY2" ] }, { "id": "MY-D", "title": "United States Seeks to Recover More Than $1 Billion Obtained from Corruption Involving Malaysian Sovereign Wealth Fund", "author": "United States Department of Justice", "date": "20 July 2016", "url": "https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/united-states-seeks-recover-more-1-billion-obtained-corruption-involving-malaysian-sovereign", "locator": "Opening paragraphs and description of civil forfeiture complaints", "limitation": "Announcement establishes enforcement action and allegations concerning 1MDB. It is not a conviction of Najib at that time or a measure of the controversy’s electoral effect.", "cards": [ "MY4" ] }, { "id": "MY-E", "title": "World Report 2019: Malaysia, Events of 2018", "author": "Human Rights Watch", "date": "2019, reporting 2018", "url": "https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2019/country-chapters/malaysia", "locator": "Introduction; Freedom of Expression; Freedom of Assembly and Association", "limitation": "Post-election evidence about institutional and rights constraints. It tests what turnover accomplished and cannot explain an election that had already occurred.", "cards": [ "MY6" ] }, { "id": "MY-F", "title": "PARLINE Malaysia Dewan Rakyat Electoral system", "author": "Inter-Parliamentary Union", "date": "Historical record of the system used for the 2013 and 2018 contests", "url": "http://archive.ipu.org/parline-e/reports/2197_B.htm", "locator": "Mode of designation; Constituencies; Voting system", "limitation": "Documents 222 directly elected single-member constituencies and simple-majority voting. Other dated fields on this archived page should not be treated as current law.", "cards": [ "MY1" ] } ] }, { "country": "Malawi", "case_window": "21 May 2019 presidential election through 23 June 2020 fresh presidential election", "sources": [ { "id": "MW-A", "title": "Malawi Tripartite Elections, 21 May 2019: Preliminary Statement", "author": "European Union Election Observation Mission; document mirrored by EISA", "date": "23 May 2019; media monitoring 17 April–18 May 2019", "url": "https://www.eisa.org/storage/2023/05/eom-report-2019-preliminary-statement-malawi-eu-eisa.pdf", "locator": "Printed pp. 1–2 and 9, especially footnote 27", "limitation": "Preliminary statement issued before final tabulation and court petitions. Media percentages concern monitored party airtime, not audiences, beliefs or votes.", "cards": [ "MW1" ] }, { "id": "MW-B", "title": "2019 Tripartite Elections Report", "author": "Malawi Electoral Commission", "date": "Report concerns May 2019, with narrative including the February 2020 judgment; current MEC file uploaded September 2026, original publication date not established", "url": "https://mec.org.mw/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2019-TRIPARTITE-ELECTIONS-REPORT-V2-1.pdf", "locator": "Printed p. 66, official candidate results; p. 72, petition and judgment account", "limitation": "Declared 2019 results were later set aside. Other candidates totaled 290,446 of 5,031,264 valid votes (5.7728%, displayed as 5.8%). These administrative figures do not reconstruct an irregularity-free count. Current upload date is separate from the election date.", "cards": [ "MW0", "MW2", "MW3", "MW4", "MW6" ] }, { "id": "MW-C", "title": "2020 Fresh Presidential Elections Report", "author": "Malawi Electoral Commission", "date": "Report concerns June 2020; current MEC file uploaded September 2026, original publication date not established", "url": "https://mec.org.mw/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2020-FRESH-PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTIONS-REPORT-V2-1.pdf", "locator": "Printed pp. 10–12, institutional steps; pp. 28–29, tickets and implementation; p. 41, counting; p. 42, final results", "limitation": "Official retrospective administration account. Its candidate totals imply 59.33% for Chakwera and 39.93% for Mutharika. The separate MEC polling-station publication MW-E implies 59.34% and 39.92%. The reason for this difference is unestablished. Student values use one decimal, on which the series agree.", "cards": [ "MW0", "MW3", "MW4", "MW5", "MW6" ], "limitSummary": "This is an election administrator’s retrospective account, not independent proof of motives or universal implementation. Two official 2020 publications have unexplained exact-total differences; their rounded shares agree. The complete numerical audit is retained below." }, { "id": "MW-D", "title": "The Nullification of the 2019 Presidential Election in Malawi: A Judicial Coup d’État?", "author": "Mwiza Jo Nkhata, Anganile Willie Mwenifumbo and Alfred Majamanda", "date": "2021, Journal of African Elections 20(2):57–80; DOI 10.20940/JAE/2021/v20i2a4", "url": "https://www.eisa.org/storage/2023/05/2021-journal-of-african-elections-v20n2-nullification-2019-presidential-election-malawi-judicial-coup-detat-eisa.pdf", "locator": "Printed pp. 59–60, court sequence; pp. 65–68, majority-rule reasoning", "limitation": "Original scholarly analysis of the judgments, with criticism of parts of judicial reasoning. Original judgments could not be retrieved: court details rely on this analysis and MEC’s account, not a claimed direct reading.", "cards": [ "MW2", "MW3" ] }, { "id": "MW-E", "title": "Fresh Presidential Election Constituency Results by Polling Station", "author": "Malawi Electoral Commission", "date": "Generated 29 July 2020; currently hosted file uploaded under a November 2022 path", "url": "https://mec.org.mw/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2020-Fresh-Presidential-Election-Results-Per-station.pdf", "locator": "p. 233, grand totals; p. 1, column headings", "limitation": "Totals are Chakwera 2,604,043; Mutharika 1,751,877; Kuwani 32,456 (4,388,376 valid votes). MW-C instead reports 2,604,300; 1,752,530; 32,473 (4,389,303). The source discrepancy is distinct from the valid-vote/all-ballot denominator issue.", "cards": [ "MW0", "MW6" ] } ] }, { "country": "Serbia", "case_window": "17 December 2023 national parliamentary election through the first new-parliament session on 6 February 2024", "sources": [ { "id": "RS-A", "title": "Republic of Serbia: Early Parliamentary Elections, 17 December 2023. ODIHR Election Observation Mission Final Report", "author": "OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights", "date": "28 February 2024; television monitoring 21 November–14 December 2023", "url": "https://www.osce.org/files/f/documents/1/3/563505_0.pdf", "locator": "Printed pp. 5–7, background and rules; pp. 13–14, campaign; pp. 20–21, media; pp. 27–28, challenges; pp. 32–33, REC final results", "limitation": "Observer findings and official results reproduced from REC are distinct evidence. Recorded ballots do not independently validate free preferences. Media content does not measure audience exposure or persuasion.", "cards": [ "RS0", "RS2", "RS3", "RS5", "RS6" ] }, { "id": "RS-B", "title": "Government sends to president proposal for disbanding parliament", "author": "Government of the Republic of Serbia", "date": "30 October 2023", "url": "https://www.srbija.gov.rs/vest/en/214944/government-sends-to-president-proposal-for-disbanding-parliament.php", "locator": "First three substantive paragraphs after the publication date", "limitation": "Primary evidence of the government’s stated rationale, including its reference to opposition election demands. It does not establish equal campaigning conditions or verify its own democratic claims.", "cards": [ "RS1" ] }, { "id": "RS-C", "title": "CINS Inside SNS’s Call Center: Hostess Agency, Vote Buying, and Millions in Cash", "author": "Center for Investigative Journalism of Serbia", "date": "29 November 2023", "url": "https://www.cins.rs/en/cins-inside-snss-call-center-hostess-agency-vote-buying-and-millions-in-cash/", "locator": "Original recruitment narrative, recorded exchanges and cash-payment sections; exclude later related-story teasers", "limitation": "Firsthand investigation, with recordings and separate source assertions, rather than a criminal conviction. One documented operation cannot establish how many national votes changed.", "cards": [ "RS4" ] } ] } ], "assigned_reading": { "id": "READING", "title": "The New Competitive Authoritarianism", "author": "Steven Levitsky and Lucan A. Way", "date": "January 2020", "publication": "Journal of Democracy 31(1):51–65", "doi": "10.1353/jod.2020.0004", "url": "https://doi.org/10.1353/jod.2020.0004", "locator": "Especially pp. 55–59 on meaningful competition and limits on incumbent control", "limitation": "Assigned conceptual reading, kept separate from case evidence. The activity should prime questions about competition, unequal opportunity and actual control without requiring students to adopt its regime labels or treating four cases as the same regime type." } }