Leader exit: did this officeholder leave?
Regime change: did the rules and organizations determining access to power change?
Democratization: did competition, participation and accountability become more meaningful?
Social revolution: did state institutions and social or class relations undergo rapid, fundamental transformation substantially accomplished through popular mobilization from below?
Always add a date. These outcomes need not occur together.
Threshold: regime change means a substantial replacement of rules governing access to and exercise of power. Replacing a president through an unchanged succession rule is different from replacing who can compete or remove the winner. Scholars set different thresholds; state and justify yours.
Hypothetical example: a substantial change in who owns land or controls workplaces could be evidence about class relations. It would not alone establish a social revolution: also investigate state institutions, popular mobilization and the scale and pace of change.
", "sourceIds": [ "A2", "A7" ] } ] }, { "stage": "theory", "title": "Build your theory toolkit", "cards": [ { "id": "TH1", "title": "Pressure and expectations", "html": "Two different pathways. Expectations and opportunities: people judge a gap between what they expect and what they believe they can attain; expectations may rise faster than opportunities, or opportunities may fall; that judgment can motivate action (Gurr). State strain: revenue or administrative problems disrupt bargains and services sustaining authority (Skocpol; Goldstone).
Seek: evidence of expectations and whose expectations and perceived opportunities changed for the first pathway; budgets, payments and compliance for the second. Hardship statistics alone do not measure either pathway fully.
Challenge: similar hardship with different expectations or responses; replacement revenue that sustains compliance. Motivation, resources and timing are separate questions.
", "sourceIds": [ "A1", "A2", "A3" ] }, { "id": "TH2", "title": "Organization and changing beliefs", "html": "Resource mobilization: organizations supply ties, time, money and coordination that turn willingness into collective action (McCarthy and Zald). Civil resistance includes strikes, boycotts and other noncooperation as well as demonstrations; participation matters through the dependencies it can affect (Chenoweth and Stephan).
Preference cascades: publicly expressed opposition can alter beliefs about how many others will join, reducing the perceived cost of revealing private opposition (Kuran). This is a different mechanism from having an organization.
Seek: recruitment ties and coordinated action for the first; prior concealed views and changed expectations for the second. A sudden crowd alone identifies neither.
", "sourceIds": [ "A4", "A5", "A8" ] }, { "id": "TH3", "title": "Governing coalitions and obedience", "html": "Dependence and obedience: rulers depend on distinct organizations. Police, military, officials, businesses and outside supporters may have different stakes (Skocpol; Bellin). Ask who continues which task for whom.
Capacity: can an institution implement an instruction? Willingness: will it do so? An unpaid but loyal unit and a well-equipped unit withholding cooperation imply different mechanisms.
Seek: orders, deployments, implemented decisions, resources and retained vetoes. An institution can abandon a ruler yet retain authority. A formal promise and binding oversight require different evidence.
", "sourceIds": [ "A2", "A6" ] }, { "id": "TH4", "title": "Political projects and settlement", "html": "Competing projects: opponents of one ruler may disagree about the successor order. Organizations can sustain demands, broker a compromise, or exclude others. Bargains become consequential through implementation and enforcement, and can later be reversed (On Revolutions).
Seek: who negotiates, who is represented, implemented selection rules and behavior when a powerful actor dislikes a decision. Continuity can enable succession while also protecting an unaccountable veto.
Keep three axes separate: methods used by specified actors in a stated period; changes they seek; outcomes actually established by a date. Nonviolent methods do not imply modest goals or a guaranteed democratic result.
", "sourceIds": [ "A7" ] } ] }, { "stage": "practice", "title": "Follow the missing link", "cards": [] }, { "stage": "tunisia", "title": "Anger needs connections", "cards": [ { "id": "TN1", "title": "Pressure for whom", "html": "Data period: 2010. Source release: IMF review, 2012. The IMF reported unemployment of 13.0% of the labor force overall and 29.4% among the youth labor force aged 15-24, alongside uneven opportunities and favoritism.
This supports a question about distribution and blocked opportunity. It does not establish that everyone was impoverished, that a majority of all young people were unemployed, or that unemployment alone caused the uprising.
", "sourceIds": [ "T1" ] }, { "id": "TN2", "title": "The two-hour strike", "html": "Event and publication: 14 January 2011. The IUF reported that Tunisian General Labour Union (UGTT) workers, including food and tourism workers, joined a two-hour general strike. It also described the union's defense of protest rights and police violence affecting union property in Kasserine.
A union federation has regional offices and members whose positions need not be identical. This is an interested union source documenting action, not a causal experiment.
", "sourceIds": [ "T2" ] }, { "id": "TN3", "title": "Read the photograph", "html": "The photograph is dated 14 January 2011 in Tunis and credited to Lisa Bryant of VOA. A visible demand and a gathering are observations. A national turnout percentage, private opinions and the loyalties of security organizations cannot be read directly from this frame.
Geography question: TN2 brings Kasserine into a dossier whose photograph shows the capital. A capital-only view can miss organizations and grievances elsewhere.
", "sourceIds": [] } ] }, { "stage": "audit", "title": "The story that travels too well", "cards": [ { "id": "TN4", "title": "Testimony and interpretation", "html": "Events: January and April 2011. Analysis: Grewal, 2023 and 2024. Grewal reports that Rachid Ammar denied receiving an order to fire, calling the refusal story a false rumor. Grewal interprets military conduct as selectively stepping aside while internal-security forces were overstretched.
The reported testimony challenges an order-refusal claim. The broader account is a scholar's interpretation, with evidence to examine. It does not imply that the military played no role.
", "sourceIds": [ "T3", "T4" ] }, { "id": "TN7", "title": "An institution with different stakes", "html": "Retrospective research, 2016: Grewal describes Tunisia's military as historically sidelined from political and economic power, with weaker institutional stakes in Ben Ali's governing network than many regional counterparts.
This gives a proposed reason why an institution might move beyond a ruler without taking the lead in politics. It is an interpretation grounded in institutional history and interviews, not proof of every soldier's preferences. Compare its observable implications with the disputed refusal story.
Counterevidence to an apolitical-army label: the same account describes Ammar's expanded informal influence and officers taking civilian or security posts after Ben Ali. Marginalization under one ruler is not permanent absence from politics. Investigate particular decisions, appointments and constraints.
", "sourceIds": [ "T9" ] } ] }, { "stage": "horizons", "title": "A breakthrough has a time horizon", "cards": [ { "id": "TN5", "title": "Leader exit and a new bargain", "html": "14 January 2011: Ben Ali left. 26 January 2014: a new constitution passed with 200 votes for, 12 against and 4 abstentions. The National Dialogue Quartet helped mediate the 2013 crisis; the Nobel Committee recognized it in 2015.
Leader exit, constitutional agreement and mediation are different observations. The constitutional vote records assembly votes, not a population survey or proof of permanent compliance.
Who could broker a settlement? The Quartet joined the labor federation, the employers' organization, the human-rights league and the lawyers' order. Different social interests shared a mediation process. Their composition makes a cross-group bargaining mechanism plausible; the award alone does not establish its independent effect.
", "sourceIds": [ "T5", "T6", "T7" ] }, { "id": "TN6", "title": "Change the observation window", "html": "25 July 2021: President Kais Saied suspended parliament. 2022: a new constitution expanded presidential powers. The Library of Congress reports referendum turnout of 30.5% and approval among voters of 94.6%.
Later reversal does not mean earlier change never happened. A large yes share among participating voters does not measure support among all eligible voters.
", "sourceIds": [ "T8" ] }, { "id": "TN8", "title": "An agreement put into electoral practice", "html": "Events: legislative and presidential elections in 2014. Sources: CRS, August 2015; Carter Center report excerpt, December 2015. CRS describes Ennahda's negotiated departure from government for a technocratic interim cabinet and acceptance of the 2014 election results. Carter observers described genuine voter choice and orderly polling, alongside legal and administrative weaknesses.
This is evidence of practices beyond adopting a constitution. It supports a bounded account of competitive selection and compromise by end 2014. It does not identify the Quartet's independent effect or guarantee future compliance.
This card does not report military appointment rules or demonstrate civilian command over military decisions.
", "sourceIds": [ "T10", "T11" ] } ] }, { "stage": "retrieval", "title": "Rebuild the question", "cards": [] }, { "stage": "egypt", "title": "Beyond the famous square", "cards": [ { "id": "EG1", "title": "The labor-action report", "html": "Event and publication: 9 February 2011. The ITUC reported worker actions in Suez, Cairo, Luxor, Mahalla, Menya and Quesna, across textiles, cement, tourism, telecommunications and other sectors.
Several firms connected to the Suez Canal Company were affected. The same report explicitly said maritime traffic was not affected. Distinguish the locations of workplaces from evidence about actual shipping disruption.
", "sourceIds": [ "E1" ] }, { "id": "EG2", "title": "What a photograph cannot settle", "html": "The Tahrir Square photograph is from 8 February 2011. It documents a gathering in a central public space. It cannot establish all of Egypt's participation, the movement's organizational durability, or the military's willingness to accept civilian oversight.
", "sourceIds": [] } ] }, { "stage": "egyptaudit", "title": "Who inherits the chair", "cards": [ { "id": "EG3", "title": "Fiscal resource and succession record", "html": "Historical resource: US military assistance in FY2010 was $1.3 billion, according to CRS's 11 February 2011 report. 11 February 2011: Mubarak left; authority passed to the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces. Egypt's government records the council's administration from February 2011 to June 2012.
The aid figure identifies an external resource relationship. It does not prove that Washington commanded each military decision.
", "sourceIds": [ "E2", "E3" ], "inquiryPacket": true }, { "id": "EG4", "title": "Opening and coercive veto", "html": "2012: Egypt held a competitive presidential election that the Carter Center assessed through a limited witnessing mission, and Mohamed Morsi became president. 3 July 2013: the military removed his government after mass demonstrations, suspended the constitution and installed an interim president. Sisi became president in 2014.
An election is consequential without proving that transition is complete. Civilian divisions, organized coercion and institutional autonomy require separate investigation.
", "sourceIds": [ "E4", "E5", "E6" ] }, { "id": "EG5", "title": "An institution can protect itself", "html": "Retrospective analysis, Bellin 2012: the Egyptian military had protected economic ventures and organizational interests. Its stakes in the existing order could differ from its stake in Mubarak personally.
This supports investigating an institution that could abandon a ruler while preserving power. It does not prove that all officers shared a single motive. Bellin's earlier Tunisia discussion also repeated the refusal story challenged in TN4: use later evidence to audit factual claims even in influential scholarship.
", "sourceIds": [ "A6" ] }, { "id": "EG1R", "title": "Labor-action record: inspected again", "html": "9 February 2011: the union report records actions in multiple sectors and cities and says maritime traffic through the canal was not affected. This is evidence about action and disruption at a specified moment. It does not record the rule for appointing a defense minister in 2014.
", "sourceIds": [ "E1" ], "inquiryPacket": true }, { "id": "EG6", "title": "Appointment rule, historical 2014 text", "html": "Primary legal text, historical 2014 version: Article 234 required approval by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces for appointment of the defense minister. It specified the provision for two full presidential terms from the constitution's entry into effect.
Identify who had a formal say in this particular appointment. Separate the content of a written rule from evidence of its operation in an actual appointment. This is the 2014 text, not the later amended version.
", "sourceIds": [ "E7" ], "inquiryPacket": true } ] }, { "stage": "belarus", "title": "The crowd does not decide the ending", "cards": [ { "id": "BY1", "title": "Peaceful participation and coercion", "html": "Publication: 10 August 2020. OSCE/ODIHR described disproportionate police force against overwhelmingly peaceful protests after the 9 August presidential election. ODIHR had not observed the vote because it received no timely invitation.
Do not infer a precise national turnout, a true vote share or an entire command structure from this statement.
", "sourceIds": [ "B1" ] } ] }, { "stage": "belarusaudit", "title": "Survival is an outcome too", "cards": [ { "id": "BY2", "title": "Retention and legitimacy", "html": "Lukashenko held an inauguration on 23 September 2020. The EU's declaration the next day rejected his claimed democratic mandate. Holding office and possessing democratic legitimacy are different questions.
By 4 December, the UN High Commissioner reported more than 27,000 people reportedly arrested since 9 August and systematic, often violent dispersal of overwhelmingly peaceful demonstrations. This is a reported count, not the number still detained or a verified record of every arrest.
The packet records incumbent retention within this window. It does not establish that there were zero defections, that everyone consented, or what the long-run outcome must be.
The EU statement establishes an external actor's judgment of democratic mandate. It does not measure every domestic citizen's beliefs. Coerced compliance, legal officeholding, external recognition and consent are different observations.
", "sourceIds": [ "B2", "B3" ] }, { "id": "BY3", "title": "Organized action and targeted suppression", "html": "Report presented 5 November 2020; printed pages 33-34: independent OSCE Moscow Mechanism rapporteur Wolfgang Benedek described strikes at state factories, threats to close workplaces or dismiss workers, and detention or persecution of strike leaders. The report drew on submissions and remote interviews; Belarus declined to cooperate.
The sequence supplies evidence of organized workplace resistance and actions targeting it. It weakens a simple claim that no organized mobilization occurred. It does not isolate suppression's independent effect or show that repression always secures survival. Explaining state violence does not make protesters responsible for it.
", "sourceIds": [ "B4" ] } ] }, { "stage": "srilanka", "title": "A crisis is not yet an explanation", "cards": [ { "id": "LK1", "title": "Shortages and response", "html": "5 April 2022: the UN briefing described fuel, cooking-gas and food shortages, power cuts, and largely peaceful protests across the country. It also noted emergency restrictions, a curfew and a temporary social-media shutdown.
Nationwide protest does not establish equal participation or equal political inclusion across regions, classes or ethnic groups.
", "sourceIds": [ "L1" ] }, { "id": "LK2", "title": "Read the inflation release", "html": "Official release: 30 June 2022. Colombo Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline inflation, year on year. The CPI tracks prices for a specified consumer basket; this is the Colombo measure. Index base 2013=100 is the scale reference, not the inflation rate.
Shared bar scale: 0-60% year on year, starting at zero.
| Period | Year-on-year rate | Coverage |
|---|---|---|
| May 2022 | 39.1% | Colombo CPI |
| June 2022 | 54.6% | Colombo CPI |
These are year-on-year rates, not monthly price changes or the national NCPI. This exact table is also in the notebook after you open the card.
If a rate rises from 10% to 15%, the difference is 5 percentage points. The relative increase in the rate is 50%. Neither statement by itself measures a one-month change in prices.
Year on year: June’s rate compares June 2022 prices with June 2021; May’s compares May 2022 with May 2021.
", "sourceIds": [ "L2" ] }, { "id": "LK5", "title": "Organizations and routine government", "html": "Interview 13 May; published 17 May 2022: UN Resident Coordinator Hanaa Singer-Hamdy described initially citizen-led protests joined by political parties, trade unions, student unions and clergy. She also described technical parts of ministries still functioning and UN agencies working with government focal points after the cabinet dissolved.
This institutional interview gives observations about participation and administrative continuity from the UN's working position. It does not trace recruitment, establish each organization's importance or predict subsequent leader exit or explain any later outcome. Decide how it bears on your account.
", "sourceIds": [ "L6" ] } ] }, { "stage": "transfer", "title": "The successor has a procedure", "cards": [ { "id": "LK3", "title": "Resignation and selection", "html": "Parliament recorded Rajapaksa's resignation as effective 14 July 2022. On 20 July, MPs elected Wickremesinghe for the remainder of the term: 134 valid ballots for him, 82 for Alahapperuma and 3 for Dissanayaka, out of 219 valid MP ballots.
The numerator and denominator concern MPs. They do not measure citizen approval. Apply your outcome definitions to these dated observations.
", "sourceIds": [ "L3", "L4" ] }, { "id": "LK4", "title": "Rights after the departure", "html": "22 July 2022: the EU condemned reported unwarranted force against peaceful demonstrators. This is a dated institutional response to reports, not a measure of every protest or all public opinion.
", "sourceIds": [ "L5" ] } ] }, { "stage": "commissionbrief", "title": "Make the explanation travel", "cards": [ { "id": "FINAL", "title": "Four outcomes, dated", "html": "| Case and horizon | Leader | Institutional record |
|---|---|---|
| Tunisia, end 2014 | Ben Ali left in 2011 | Constitutional agreement, competitive elections and accepted results. TN5, TN8. |
| Egypt, end 2014 | Mubarak left in 2011 | Electoral opening, military removal in 2013, and a formal military appointment say in the 2014 text. EG3-EG6. |
| Belarus, 4 Dec 2020 | Incumbent retained office | Organized resistance and targeted suppression documented; survival mechanisms remain to discriminate. BY2-BY3. |
| Sri Lanka, 22 July 2022 | Rajapaksa resigned | Existing Parliament selected successor; rights and deeper change need separate criteria. LK3-LK5. |
Longer Tunisian horizon: 2021 suspension and 2022 concentration alter the later record without undoing the end-2014 observations. These are not permanent country labels, a ladder of inevitable progress or a ranking of citizens' choices.
", "sourceIds": [] } ] } ]