{ "title": "AFTER THE COUNT", "version": "2026-10-30 academic source review", "coreCases": [ { "id": "uk2024", "country": "United Kingdom", "date": "4 July 2024", "mechanism": "Single-member plurality", "rule": "Each constituency elects one MP. The candidate with the most local votes wins, even below half. A party's seat total counts local victories.", "national": [ { "party": "Labour", "sharePct": 33.7, "seats": 411 }, { "party": "Reform UK", "sharePct": 14.3, "seats": 5 }, { "party": "Liberal Democrats", "sharePct": 12.2, "seats": 72 } ], "parliamentSeats": 650, "localRecords": [ { "name": "Clacton", "winner": "Reform UK", "winningVotes": 21225, "reformVotes": 21225, "libDemVotes": 2016 }, { "name": "Woking", "winner": "Liberal Democrats", "winningVotes": 24019, "reformVotes": 4888, "libDemVotes": 24019 }, { "name": "Barnsley North", "winner": "Labour", "winningVotes": 18610, "reformVotes": 10799, "libDemVotes": 1336 } ], "finishingPositions": [ { "party": "Reform UK", "first": 5, "second": 98 }, { "party": "Liberal Democrats", "first": 72, "second": 27 } ], "policyDecision": { "question": "Which design would you recommend after weighing local representation and nationwide vote-seat matching?", "options": [ "Retain single-member plurality", "Keep local MPs and explore a compensatory list tier", "Explore allocation primarily by proportional party votes" ], "assess": "Assess the evidence and tradeoff justification, not the institutional preference." }, "safeClaims": [ "A national vote share is not the allocation rule.", "Reform votes in Woking and Barnsley North totaled 15,687 without winning either seat.", "Second place does not establish a narrow loss." ], "limits": [ "Three selected constituencies do not explain the entire national pattern.", "A fixed-vote proportional calculation is not a forecast of votes under new rules.", "A local elected representative creates a clear territorial link; the data do not prove better accountability." ], "sources": [ "https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-10009/", "https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-11175/", "https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/3989/election/422", "https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/4407/election/422", "https://www.barnsley.gov.uk/services/voting-and-elections/election-results/uk-parliamentary-general-election-4-july-2024/" ] }, { "id": "israel2022", "country": "Israel", "date": "1 November 2022", "mechanism": "Nationwide list PR with an eligibility threshold", "rule": "A list needed at least 3.25% of all valid votes to participate in allocation of the 120 seats. Bader-Ofer rules and qualifying-list totals determine exact seats.", "validVotes": 4764742, "castVotes": 4794593, "invalidVotes": 29851, "parliamentSeats": 120, "selectedLists": [ { "party": "Likud", "votes": 1115336, "sharePct": 23.41, "seats": 32 }, { "party": "Labor", "votes": 175992, "sharePct": 3.69, "seats": 4 }, { "party": "Meretz", "votes": 150793, "sharePct": 3.16, "seats": 0 }, { "party": "Balad", "votes": 138617, "sharePct": 2.91, "seats": 0 }, { "party": "Hadash-Ta'al", "votes": 178735, "sharePct": 3.75, "seats": 5 } ], "cutoff": { "thresholdPct": 3.25, "raw": 154854.115, "wholeVotes": 154855, "meretzGapFixedDenominator": 4062 }, "policyDecision": { "question": "Would you retain a 3.25% threshold or lower the eligibility barrier?", "options": [ "Lower to 2%", "Retain 3.25%", "Raise to 5%" ], "assess": "Require an included-list consequence and a fragmentation/coalition-bargaining concern, with no stability prediction inferred from the arithmetic." }, "safeClaims": [ "A valid ballot can support a list that does not qualify for seat allocation.", "The threshold establishes eligibility, not every qualifying list's exact seats.", "At fixed 2022 votes, lower thresholds allow additional lists into allocation." ], "limits": [ "A threshold-only model does not reproduce Bader-Ofer and surplus agreements unless those are explicitly implemented.", "More qualifying lists do not prove that the government will fall or that coalition negotiations will be longer.", "4,062 is a fixed-denominator gap, not a count of entirely new voters needed; the latter scenario requires 4,198." ], "sources": [ "https://votes25.bechirot.gov.il/nationalresults", "https://www.gov.il/BlobFolder/guide/knesset25-elections-info/he/info-pages_english.pdf", "https://main.knesset.gov.il/EN/About/Lexicon/Pages/ElectoralThreshold.aspx", "https://main.knesset.gov.il/EN/About/Lexicon/pages/seats.aspx" ] }, { "id": "liberia2023", "country": "Liberia", "firstRoundDate": "10 October 2023", "runoffDate": "14 November 2023", "mechanism": "Two-round presidential majority election", "rule": "More than half of valid votes is required in the first round. If nobody meets it, the top two face a new ballot.", "firstRound": { "valid": 1834516, "cast": 1949155, "invalid": 114639, "weah": { "votes": 804087, "sharePct": 43.83 }, "boakai": { "votes": 796961, "sharePct": 43.44 }, "other18Combined": 233468 }, "runoff": { "valid": 1608395, "cast": 1634183, "invalid": 25788, "weah": { "votes": 793914, "sharePct": 49.36 }, "boakai": { "votes": 814481, "sharePct": 50.64 } }, "changes": { "weahVotes": -10173, "boakaiVotes": 17520, "validVotes": -226121, "castVotes": -314972, "invalidVotes": -88851, "firstRoundLeadWeah": 7126, "runoffLeadBoakai": 20567 }, "policyDecision": { "question": "Would you select the president after a single plurality ballot or require a majority runoff?", "options": [ "Single-round plurality", "Majority runoff" ], "assess": "Under held-fixed first-round ballots plurality would select Weah; observed runoff selected Boakai. Discuss decisiveness and an additional voting opportunity against another round's administration and participation costs." }, "safeClaims": [ "The first-round leader did not have a majority.", "The runoff was a fresh election between the finalists, not automatic transfer of October ballots.", "Boakai's 17,520 net gain does not identify all people who switched to him.", "The valid-vote pool was smaller in the runoff." ], "limits": [ "A percentage majority describes valid participating votes in that round, not all eligible voters.", "A counterfactual plurality election could alter earlier voter behavior, campaigns and candidate entry.", "Aggregate counts cannot establish which individual voters switched, abstained, entered or corrected an invalid ballot." ], "sources": [ "https://necliberia.org/results/president.php?4df8f4a95b9ccaeffba51d2193fe766d30fe57c666ac68e0b618687f8a71b989=NDQzNw%253D%253D", "https://results.necliberia.org/president2.php?4df8f4a95b9ccaeffba51d2193fe766d30fe57c666ac68e0b618687f8a71b989=NDQzNw%3D%3D", "https://necliberia.org/doc_download/Final%20Amended%20Elections%20Law.pdf", "https://papsrepository.africanunion.org/bitstreams/d248c1cf-fff9-4e97-98cf-0b1dbe2ce2b8/download", "https://www.eeas.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/2024/Press%20Release%20EU%20EOM%20Liberia%202023%20Final%20Report%20240305.pdf", "https://www.necliberia.org/pg_img/Chair%20Daily%20Press%20Briefing%20Note_102423.pdf" ] } ], "transferCase": { "id": "nz2020", "country": "New Zealand", "date": "17 October 2020", "mechanism": "Mixed-member proportional representation", "rule": "Each voter has an electorate vote and a party vote. Local plurality winners keep seats. A party qualifies for proportional seat allocation with at least 5% of party votes OR an electorate victory. The party-vote allocation sets the broad total; electorate winners fill seats first and remaining entitlements are filled from party lists.", "validPartyVotes": 2886420, "parliamentSeats": 120, "parties": [ { "party": "Labour", "votes": 1443545, "sharePct": 50.01, "electorateSeats": 46, "listSeats": 19, "totalSeats": 65 }, { "party": "National", "votes": 738275, "sharePct": 25.58, "electorateSeats": 23, "listSeats": 10, "totalSeats": 33 }, { "party": "Green", "votes": 226757, "sharePct": 7.86, "electorateSeats": 1, "listSeats": 9, "totalSeats": 10 }, { "party": "ACT", "votes": 219031, "sharePct": 7.59, "electorateSeats": 1, "listSeats": 9, "totalSeats": 10 }, { "party": "Māori Party", "votes": 33630, "sharePct": 1.17, "electorateSeats": 1, "listSeats": 1, "totalSeats": 2 }, { "party": "New Zealand First", "votes": 75020, "sharePct": 2.6, "electorateSeats": 0, "listSeats": 0, "totalSeats": 0 } ], "puzzle": "Why did Māori win two seats with 1.17% while NZ First won none with 2.60%? Why did the Greens' one electorate victory become ten total seats?", "expectedAnswers": [ "Māori's electorate victory opened the path into proportional allocation; NZ First met neither qualification.", "The Greens' nine list seats topped up the one electorate seat to ten total; local seats are part of the entitlement, not an additional separate bonus.", "Labour's 65 of 120 supplied a single-party majority, so MMP does not make coalition government inevitable." ], "policyDecision": { "question": "Would you retain the one-electorate pathway to proportional allocation?", "options": [ "Retain the electorate exception", "Apply a national threshold to list allocation while preserving direct local winners" ], "assess": "Require a reason about territorial representation and one about consistent national eligibility. Do not invent exact alternative seat totals." }, "limits": [ "Removing the one-electorate pathway for list allocation would not automatically erase a directly elected local MP's seat.", "Do not use the 2023 122/123-seat episode; this case is the 2020 120-seat Parliament.", "Use final archived counts, not the 6 November 2020 release, which differs slightly after corrections/recounts." ], "sources": [ "https://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/", "https://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/statistics/percentage-votes-for-registered-parties.html", "https://archive.electionresults.govt.nz/electionresults_2020/statistics/votes-for-registered-parties-by-electorate.html", "https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/what-is-mmp", "https://elections.nz/democracy-in-nz/what-is-new-zealands-system-of-government/how-are-mps-elected" ] } }